Bayesian inference of earthquake rupture models using polynomial chaos expansion

Hugo Cruz-Jiménez, Guotu Li, Paul Martin Mai, Ibrahim Hoteit, Omar M. Knio*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations


In this paper, we employed polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to understand earthquake rupture model responses to random fault plane properties. A sensitivity analysis based on our PC surrogate model suggests that the hypocenter location plays a dominant role in peak ground velocity (PGV) responses, while elliptical patch properties only show secondary impact. In addition, the PC surrogate model is utilized for Bayesian inference of the most likely underlying fault plane configuration in light of a set of PGV observations from a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). A restricted sampling approach is also developed to incorporate additional physical constraints on the fault plane configuration and to increase the sampling efficiency.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3071-3088
Number of pages18
JournalGeoscientific Model Development
Issue number7
StatePublished - Jul 31 2018

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences
  • Modeling and Simulation


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