Disentangling Whether from When in a Neural Mixture Cure Model for Failure Time Data

Matthew Engelhard, Ricardo Henao

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The mixture cure model allows failure probability to be estimated separately from failure timing in settings wherein failure never occurs in a subset of the population. In this paper, we draw on insights from representation learning and causal inference to develop a neural network based mixture cure model that is free of distributional assumptions, yielding improved prediction of failure timing, yet still effectively disentangles information about failure timing from information about failure probability. Our approach also mitigates effects of selection biases in the observation of failure and censoring times on estimation of the failure density and censoring density, respectively. Results suggest this approach could be applied to distinguish factors predicting failure occurrence versus timing and mitigate biases in real-world observational datasets.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of Machine Learning Research
PublisherML Research Press
Pages9571-9581
Number of pages11
StatePublished - Jan 1 2022
Externally publishedYes

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