Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Daniel Dicker, Grant Nguyen, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Solomon M. Abay, Cristiana Abbafati, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Jemal Abdela, Ahmed Abdelalim, Omar Abdel-Rahman, Alireza Abdi, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Ahmed Abdulahi Abdurahman, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Molla Abebe, Zegeye Abebe, Teshome Abuka AbeboVictor Aboyans, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Pawan Acharya, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mina G. Adib, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Jose C. Adsuar, Mohsen Afarideh, Ashkan Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Rakesh Aggarwal, Sargis Aghasi Aghayan, Sutapa Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Mehdi Ahmadi, Alireza Ahmadi, Hamid Ahmadieh, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed, Sayem Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Ali S. Akanda, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Mohammed Akibu, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Tomi Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Animut Alebel, Alicia V. Aleman, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Raghib Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ala’A Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Christine A. Allen, Jordi Alonso, Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T. Amare, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Nahla Hamed Anber, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mina Anjomshoa, Degefaye Zelalem Anlay, Hossein Ansari, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Olatunde Aremu, Habtamu Abera Areri, Johan Ärnlöv, Megha Arora, Al Artaman, Krishna K. Aryal, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Hamid Asayesh, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Reza Assadi, Zerihun Ataro, Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Suleman Atique, Sachin R. Atre, Madhu Sudhan Atteraya, Engi F. Attia, Marcel Ausloos, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Baffour Awuah, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Henok Tadesse Ayele, Yohanes Ayele, Rakesh Ayer, Tambe B. Ayuk, Peter S. Azzopardi, Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Ayele Geleto Bali, Maciej Banach, Amrit Banstola, Aleksandra Barac, Miguel A. Barboza, Simon Barquera, Lope H. Barrero, Huda Basaleem, Quique Bassat, Arindam Basu, Sanjay Basu, Bernhard T. Baune, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay, Ezra Belay, Saba Abraham Belay, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Michelle L. Bell, Aminu K. Bello, Derrick A. Bennett, Isabela M. Bensenor, Adugnaw Berhane, Adam E. Berman, Eduardo Bernabe, Robert S. Bernstein, Gregory J. Bertolacci, Mircea Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, Neeraj Bhala, Eesh Bhatia, Samir Bhatt, Suraj Bhattarai, Soumyadeeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Nigus Bililign, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Sait Mentes Birlik, Charles Birungi, Donal Bisanzio, Tuhin Biswas, Tone Bjørge, Archie Bleyer, Berrak Bora Basara, Dipan Bose, Cristina Bosetti, Soufiane Boufous, Rupert Bourne, Oliver J. Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Luisa C. Brant, Alexandra Brazinova, Nicholas J.K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Gabrielle Britton, Traolach Brugha, Kristin E. Burke, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A. Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Charlton S.K.H. Callender, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Jorge Cano, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Juan J. Carrero, Austin Carter, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Franz Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Alanur Çavlin, Ester Cerin, Yazan Chaiah, Ana Paula Champs, Hsing Yi Chang, Jung Chen Chang, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Wanqing Chen, Peggy Pei Chia Chiang, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Ken Lee Chin, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Jee Young J. Choi, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Sheng Chia Chung, Flavia M. Cicuttini, Liliana G. Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, Rafael M. Claro, Aaron J. Cohen, Daniel Collado-Mateo, Maria Magdalena Constantin, Sara Conti, Cyrus Cooper, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, Ewerton Cousin, Michael H. Criqui, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Christopher Stephen Crowe, John A. Crump, Alexandra Cucu, Matthew Cunningham, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Paul I. Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Siddharth K. Das, Rajat Das Gupta, José Das Neves, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Aditya Prasad Dash, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Kairat Davletov, Anand Dayama, Barbora de Courten, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Diego De leo, Jan Walter De Neve, Meaza Girma Degefa, Louisa Degenhardt, Tizta T. Degfie, Selina Deiparine, Robert P. Dellavalle, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Balem Betsu Demtsu, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Don C. Des Jarlais, Getenet Ayalew Dessie, Subhojit Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Eric L. Ding, Shirin Djalalinia, David Teye Doku, Kate A. Dolan, Christl A. Donnelly, E. Ray Dorsey, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Kerrie E. Doyle, Thomas M. Drake, Tim Robert Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Bruce B. Duncan, Andre R. Duraes, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Dumessa Edessa, David Edvardsson, Anne Elise Eggen, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Mohammed Elfaramawi, Ziad El-Khatib, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Iqbal R.F. Elyazar, Ahmadali Enayati, Aman Yesuf Yesuf Endries, Benjamin Er, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Reza Esmaeili, Alireza Esteghamati, Sadaf Esteghamati, Mahdi Fakhar, Hamed Fakhim, Tamer Farag, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Farzaneh Farhadi, Talha A. Farid, Carla Sofia E Sá Farinha, Andrea Farioli, Andre Faro, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Mir Sohail Fazeli, Valery L. Feigin, Andrea B. Feigl, Fariba Feizy, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Joao C. Fernandes, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Irina Filip, Samuel Finegold, Florian Fischer, Luisa Sorio Flor, Nataliya A. Foigt, John A. Ford, Kyle J. Foreman, Carla Fornari, Tahvi D. Frank, Richard Charles Franklin, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E. Fuller, Nancy Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M. Furtado, Neal D. Futran, Adriana Galan, Silvano Gallus, Ketevan Gambashidze, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe, Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro, Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo, Teshome Gebre, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Ricard Genova-Maleras, Bradford D. Gessner, Sefonias Getachew, Peter W. Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman, Hesam Ghiasvand, Mamata Ghimire, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K. Gill, Richard F. Gillum, Giorgia Giussani, Shifalika Goenka, Srinivas Goli, Ricardo Santiago Gomez, Mari Carmen Gomez-Cabrera, Hector Gómez-Dantés, Philimon N. Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Atsushi Goto, Alessandra C. Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Ayman Grada, Giuseppe Grosso, Harish Chander Gugnani, Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes, Yuming Guo, Prakash C. Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Bishal Gyawali, Juanita A. Haagsma, Vladimir Hachinski, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Tekleberhan B. Hagos, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Randah R. Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Hilda L. Harb, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep Maria Haro, Mehedi Hasan, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J. Hay, Simon I. Hay, Yihua He, Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Mohamed I. Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Mohsen Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Nathaniel J. Henry, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Claudiu Herteliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Pouria Heydarpour, Sousan Heydarpour, Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu, Hans W. Hoek, Michael K. Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Praveen Hoogar, Masako Horino, H. Dean Hosgood, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Sorin Hostiuc, Mihaela Hostiuc, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G. Hoy, Mohamed Hsairi, Aung Soe Htet, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Abdullatif Husseini, Mohammedaman Mama Hussen, Susan Hutfless, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Ehimario U. Igumbor, Chad Thomas Ikeda, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Farhad Islami, Leila Jahangiry, Nader Jahanmehr, Rajesh Jain, Sudhir Kumar Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Spencer L. James, Mehdi Javanbakht, Sudha Jayaraman, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Sun Ha Jee, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S. Ji, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Ankur Joshi, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Banayya Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, K. Madhanraj, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Molla Kahssay, Rizwan Kalani, Umesh Kapil, Manoochehr Karami, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Corine Karema, Narges Karimi, Seyed M. Karimi, Hamidreza Karimi-Sari, Amir Kasaeian, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes Kassa, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Marzieh Katibeh, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Hossein Kazemeini, Zhila Kazemi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, K. C. Prakash, Seifu Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Alireza Khajavi, Nauman Khalid, Ibrahim A. Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Muhammad Ali Khan, Young Ho Khang, Tripti Khanna, Mona M. Khater, Alireza Khatony, Habibolah Khazaie, Abdullah T. Khoja, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri, Getiye D.Dejenu Kibret, Cho Il Kim, Daniel Kim, Jun Y. Kim, Young Eun Kim, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Sanjay Kinra, Adnan Kisa, Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek, Niranjan Kissoon, Mika Kivimäki, Marcus E. Kleber, Luke D. Knibbs, Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen, Sonali Kochhar, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Tufa Kolola, Jacek A. Kopec, Margaret N. Kosek, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A. Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Michael A. Kravchenko, Kewal Krishan, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Andreas A. Kudom, Ernst J. Kuipers, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, G. Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Fekede Asefa Kumsa, Michael J. Kutz, Sheetal D. Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Hilton Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Qing Lan, Sinéad M. Langan, Van C. Lansingh, Sonia Lansky, Heidi Jane Larson, Dennis Odai Laryea, Zohra S. Lassi, Arman Latifi, Pablo M. Lavados, Avula Laxmaiah, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Georgy Lebedev, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Samson Leta, Miriam Levi, Shanshan Li, Yichong Li, Xiaohong Li, Juan Liang, Xiaofeng Liang, Misgan Legesse Liben, Lee Ling Lim, Stephen S. Lim, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Giancarlo Logroscino, Chris Lonsdale, Scott A. Lorch, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Tim C.D. Lucas, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan A. Lyons, Stefan Ma, Crispin Mabika, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Mark T. Mackay, Emilie R. Maddison, Ralph Maddison, Fabiana Madotto, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Dhaval P. Maghavani, Marek Majdan, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Manzoor Ahmad Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A. Mamun, Wondimu Ayele Manamo, Ana Laura Manda, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Dadi Marami, Joemer C. Maravilla, Wagner Marcenes, Shakhnazarova Marina, Jose Martinez-Raga, Sheila C.O. Martins, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Winfried März, Melvin B. Marzan, Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson, Felix Masiye, Benjamin Ballard Massenburg, Pallab K. Maulik, Mohsen Mazidi, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Suresh Mehata, Sanjay Madhav Mehendale, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ravi Mehrotra, Kala M. Mehta, Varshil Mehta, Tesfa Mekonen, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Peter T.N. Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, George A. Mensah, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Yode Miangotar, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, G. K. Mini, Andreea Mirica, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Babak Moazen, Nurilign Abebe Moges, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Moslem Mohammadi, Noushin Mohammadifard, Maryam Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Shafiu Mohammed, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Viswanathan Mohan, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Ghobad Moradi, Mahmoudreza Moradi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Joana Morgado-Da-costa, Shane Douglas Morrison, Abbas Mosapour, Marilita M. Moschos, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Achenef Asmamaw Muche, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Erin C. Mullany, Kate Muller, Manoj Murhekar, Tasha B. Murphy, G. V.S. Murthy, Srinivas Murthy, Jonah Musa, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Jean B. Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Sanjeev Nair, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Haseeb Nawaz, Busisiwe P. Ncama, Nahid Neamati, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Subas Neupane, Charles Richard James Newton, Frida N. Ngalesoni, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Ha Thu Nguyen, Huong Thanh Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Michele Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Molly R. Nixon, Nomonde Nolutshungu, Shuhei Nomura, Ole F. Norheim, Mehdi Noroozi, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Hamid Reza Nouri, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammad Reza Nowroozi, Elaine O. Nsoesie, Peter S. Nyasulu, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In Hwan Oh, Anselm Okoro, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T. Olagunju, Tinuke O. Olagunju, Pedro R. Olivares, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, John Nelson Opio, Eyal Oren, Justin R. Ortiz, Alberto Ortiz, Erika Ota, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Simon Øverland, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, P. A. Mahesh, Rosana Pacella, Smita Pakhale, Abhijit P. Pakhare, Adrian Pana, Basant Kumar Panda, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Achyut Raj Pandey, Jeyaraj Durai Pandian, Andrea Parisi, Eun Kee Park, Charles D.H. Parry, Hadi Parsian, Shanti Patel, Ajay Patle, Scott B. Patten, George C. Patton, Deepak Paudel, Neil Pearce, Emmanuel K. Peprah, Alexandre Pereira, David M. Pereira, Krystle M. Perez, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, William A. Petri, Max Petzold, Michael R. Phillips, David M. Pigott, Julian David Pillay, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Farhad Pishgar, Dietrich Plass, Suzanne Polinder, Constance Dimity Pond, Svetlana Popova, Maarten J. Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Akram Pourshams, Hossein Poustchi, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, V. Prakash, Swayam Prakash, Narayan Prasad, Mostafa Qorbani, D. Alex Quistberg, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Kazem Rahimi, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Fatemeh Rajati, Sasa Rajsic, Sree Bhushan Raju, Usha Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Prabhat Ranjan, Anna Ranta, Davide Rasella, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Sarah E. Ray, Christian Razo-García, Maria Albertina Santiago Rego, Jürgen Rehm, Robert C. Reiner, Nickolas Reinig, Cesar Reis, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Satar Rezaei, Shahab Rezaeian, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro, Horacio Riojas, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Kedir Teji Roba, Stephen R. Robinson, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Denis O. Roshchin, Ali Rostami, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Enrico Rubagotti, George Mugambage Ruhago, Soheil Saadat, Yogesh Damodar Sabde, Perminder S. Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Ehsan Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Hosein Safari, Yahya Safari, Roya Safari-Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Haniye Sadat Sajadi, Mohamadreza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Joseph S. Salama, Payman Salamati, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Inbal Salz, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M. Samy, Juan Sanabria, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño, Itamar S. Santos, João Vasco Santos, Milena M. Santric Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Mayank Sardana, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Miloje Savic, Arundhati R. Sawant, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Mehdi Sayyah, Vinod Scaria, Elke Schaeffner, Kathryn Schelonka, Maria Inês Schmidt, Ione J.C. Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, James G. Scott, Mario Sekerija, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Edson Serván-Mori, Hosein Shabaninejad, Katya Anne Shackelford, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Amira A. Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Raad A. Shakir, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammadbagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Heidar Sharafi, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Meenakshi Sharma, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Kevin N. Sheth, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Girma Temam Shifa, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Ivy Shiue, Farhad Shokraneh, Mark G. Shrime, Sharvari Rahul Shukla, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Tariq J. Siddiqi, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir, Naris Silpakit, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Narayana Sarma Venkata Singam, Jasvinder A. Singh, Virendra Singh, Anju Pradhan Sinha, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Freddy Sitas, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Soheila Sobhani, Moslem Soofi, Joan B. Soriano, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Luciano A. Sposato, Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Rakesh Kumar Srivastava, Vladimir I. Starodubov, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nicholas Steel, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Leo G. Stewart, Mark A. Stokes, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu’Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Gerhard Sulo, Bruno F. Sunguya, Patrick John Sur, Ipsita Sutradhar, Bryan L. Sykes, P. N. Sylaja, Dillon O. Sylte, Cassandra E.I. Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Ken Takahashi, Nikhil Tandon, Aberash Abay Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Nuno Taveira, Nega Yimer Tawye, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Tigist Gashaw Tekalign, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Habtamu Temesgen, Mohamad Hani Temsah, Omar Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Belay Tessema, Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin, Jarnail Singh Thakur, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Laura Anne Thomas, Nihal Thomas, Amanda G. Thrift, Binyam Tilahun, Quyen G. To, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topor-Madry, Fotis Topouzis, Anna E. Torre, Miguel Tortajada-Girbés, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Jeffrey A. Towbin, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Suryakant Tripathi, Srikanth Prasad Tripathy, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Nu Thi Truong, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Lorainne Tudor Car, E. Murat Tuzcu, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Muhammad Shariq Usman, Olalekan A. Uthman, Selen Begüm Uzun, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Afsane Vaezi, Gaurang Vaidya, Pascual R. Valdez, Elena Varavikova, Santosh Varughese, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Ramesh Vidavalur, Santos Villafaina, Francesco S. Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Kia Vosoughi, Isidora S. Vujcic, Gregory R. Wagner, Fasil Wagnew Shiferaw Wagnew, Yasir Waheed, Yanping Wang, Yuan Pang Wang, Molla Mesele Wassie, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G. Weintraub, Daniel J. Weiss, Jordan Weiss, Fitsum Weldegebreal, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey A. Whiteford, Justyna Widecka, Katarzyna Widecka, Tissa Wijeratne, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles D.A. Wolfe, Sintayehu Ambachew Wondemagegn, Shouling Wu, Grant M.A. Wyper, Gelin Xu, Rajaram Yadav, Bereket Yakob, Tomohide Yamada, Lijing L. Yan, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Pengpeng Ye, Jamal A. Yearwood, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Alex Yeshaneh, Ebrahim M. Yimer, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok Jun Yoon, Hunter W. York, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z. Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Chuanhua Yu, Geevar Zachariah, Vesna Zadnik, Shamsa Zafar, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Hajo Zeeb, Mulugeta Molla Zeleke, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Kai Zhang, Xueying Zhang, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Sanjay Zodpey, Inbar Zucker, Liesl Joanna J. Zuhlke, Alan D. Lopez, Emmanuela Gakidou, Christopher J.L. Murray

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    665 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.
    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)1684-1735
    Number of pages52
    JournalThe Lancet
    Volume392
    Issue number10159
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Nov 10 2018

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • General Medicine

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this