Abstract
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1211-1259 |
| Number of pages | 49 |
| Journal | The Lancet |
| Volume | 390 |
| Issue number | 10100 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Sep 16 2017 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Medicine
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In: The Lancet, Vol. 390, No. 10100, 16.09.2017, p. 1211-1259.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
AU - Vos, Theo
AU - Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
AU - Abbafati, Cristiana
AU - Abbas, Kaja M.
AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
AU - Abd-Allah, Foad
AU - Abdulle, Abdishakur M.
AU - Abebo, Teshome Abuka
AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede
AU - Aboyans, Victor
AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
AU - Ackerman, Ilana N.
AU - Adamu, Abdu Abdullahi
AU - Adetokunboh, Olatunji
AU - Afarideh, Mohsen
AU - Afshin, Ashkan
AU - Agarwal, Sanjay Kumar
AU - Aggarwal, Rakesh
AU - Agrawal, Anurag
AU - Agrawal, Sutapa
AU - Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar
AU - Ahmadieh, Hamid
AU - Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
AU - Aichour, Amani Nidhal
AU - Aichour, Ibtihel
AU - Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
AU - Aiyar, Sneha
AU - Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
AU - Akseer, Nadia
AU - Al Lami, Faris Hasan
AU - Alahdab, Fares
AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad
AU - Alam, Khurshid
AU - Alam, Noore
AU - Alam, Tahiya
AU - Alasfoor, Deena
AU - Alene, Kefyalew Addis
AU - Ali, Raghib
AU - Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza
AU - Alkerwi, Ala'a
AU - Alla, François
AU - Allebeck, Peter
AU - Allen, Christine
AU - Al-Maskari, Fatma
AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
AU - Alsharif, Ubai
AU - Alsowaidi, Shirina
AU - Altirkawi, Khalid A.
AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.
AU - Amini, Erfan
AU - Ammar, Walid
AU - Amoako, Yaw Ampem
AU - Andersen, Hjalte H.
AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.
AU - Anwari, Palwasha
AU - Ärnlöv, Johan
AU - Artaman, Al
AU - Aryal, Krishna Kumar
AU - Asayesh, Hamid
AU - Asgedom, Solomon W.
AU - Assadi, Reza
AU - Atey, Tesfay Mehari
AU - Atnafu, Niguse Tadele
AU - Atre, Sachin R.
AU - Avila-Burgos, Leticia
AU - Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur
AU - Awasthi, Ashish
AU - Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina
AU - Ba Saleem, Huda Omer
AU - Bacha, Umar
AU - Badawi, Alaa
AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana
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AU - Bärnighausen, Till
AU - Barquera, Simon
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AU - Bennett, Derrick A.
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AU - Beyene, Addisu Shunu
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AU - Boneya, Dube Jara
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AU - Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna
AU - Murray, Christopher J.L.
N1 - Generated from Scopus record by KAUST IRTS on 2021-03-16
PY - 2017/9/16
Y1 - 2017/9/16
N2 - Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.
AB - Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.
UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673617321542
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85031738724&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32154-2
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32154-2
M3 - Article
SN - 1474-547X
VL - 390
SP - 1211
EP - 1259
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
IS - 10100
ER -