TY - JOUR
T1 - Ocean-atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan
AU - Hussain, Azfar
AU - Hussain, Ishtiaq
AU - Ali, Shaukat
AU - Ullah, Waheed
AU - Rezaei, Abolfazl
AU - Ali, Shaukat
AU - Ullah, Safi
AU - Abbas, Haider
AU - Manzoom, Asima
AU - Zhou, Jinxing
AU - Cao, Jianhua
N1 - KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2023-09-05
Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge Pakistan Meteorology Department for providing temperature data. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant No. 31870707.
PY - 2023/8/24
Y1 - 2023/8/24
N2 - In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify the associations between regional temperature change and global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Pacific/North American Index (PNA), North Pacific Pattern (NP), Western Pacific Index (WP), and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator to compute the temperature changes in Pakistan and its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It is found that the temperature in Pakistan has increased significantly at 0.23 °C dec−1 in the last 62 years, which is also higher than the global average increase. This increase is more evident in region IV and V in spring at 0.63 and 0.43 °C dec−1 respectively, followed by summer and autumn. Temperature changes in Pakistan and its sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP and WHWP with higher mean significant coherences. Overall, temperature changes are significantly influenced by multiple interactions of global teleconnections, and these combinations indicate that the integrated influence of teleconnections can better explain the regional temperature changes. The teleconnections with broader significant influence over Pakistan are NP + WP + WHWP, followed by Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, and PNA), and Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, and NAO) indices as revealed by the mean significant coherences of 0.82, 0.82 and 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA and WHWP showed significant correlation with higher magnitudes of 0.44, 0.42 and 0.20 respectively, indicating the modulation effect of these teleconnections on temperature changes over Pakistan. The combined impacts from the various teleconnections represent a considerable advancement in the accuracy of significant temperature variations over the country. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in terms of better planning and policies in light of climate change as well as atmospheric circulation variability.
AB - In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify the associations between regional temperature change and global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Pacific/North American Index (PNA), North Pacific Pattern (NP), Western Pacific Index (WP), and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator to compute the temperature changes in Pakistan and its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It is found that the temperature in Pakistan has increased significantly at 0.23 °C dec−1 in the last 62 years, which is also higher than the global average increase. This increase is more evident in region IV and V in spring at 0.63 and 0.43 °C dec−1 respectively, followed by summer and autumn. Temperature changes in Pakistan and its sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP and WHWP with higher mean significant coherences. Overall, temperature changes are significantly influenced by multiple interactions of global teleconnections, and these combinations indicate that the integrated influence of teleconnections can better explain the regional temperature changes. The teleconnections with broader significant influence over Pakistan are NP + WP + WHWP, followed by Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, and PNA), and Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, and NAO) indices as revealed by the mean significant coherences of 0.82, 0.82 and 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA and WHWP showed significant correlation with higher magnitudes of 0.44, 0.42 and 0.20 respectively, indicating the modulation effect of these teleconnections on temperature changes over Pakistan. The combined impacts from the various teleconnections represent a considerable advancement in the accuracy of significant temperature variations over the country. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in terms of better planning and policies in light of climate change as well as atmospheric circulation variability.
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10754/694106
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acee99
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/acee99
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/acee99
M3 - Article
SN - 1748-9326
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
ER -