Onset of aseismic creep on major strike-slip faults

Time series analysis of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, GPS measurements, and field observations reveal that the central section of the Izmit (Turkey) fault that slipped with a supershear rupture velocity in the A.D. 1999, Mw7.4, Izmit earthquake began creeping aseismically following the earthquake. Rapid initial postseismic afterslip decayed logarithmically with time and appears to have reached a steady rate comparable to the pre-earthquake full fault-crossing rate, suggesting that it may continue for decades and possibly until late in the earthquake cycle. If confirmed by future monitoring, these observations identify postseismic afterslip as a mechanism for initiating creep behavior along strike-slip faults. Long-term afterslip and/or creep has significant implications for earthquake cycle models, recurrence intervals of large earthquakes, and accordingly, seismic hazard estimation along mature strike-slip faults, in particular for Istanbul which is believed to lie adjacent to a seismic gap along the North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara.