Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

C. Borrego*, A. Monteiro, J. Ferreira, A. I. Miranda, A. M. Costa, A. C. Carvalho, M. Lopes

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    105 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)613-620
    Number of pages8
    JournalEnvironment international
    Volume34
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jul 2008

    Keywords

    • Air quality
    • Modelling
    • Quality indicators
    • Uncertainty

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • General Environmental Science

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