Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan

Maria A. Martin; Olga Alcaraz Sendra; Ana Bastos; Nico Bauer; Christoph Bertram; Thorsten Blenckner; Kathryn Bowen; Paulo M. Brando; Tanya Brodie Rudolph; Milena Büchs; Mercedes Bustamante; Deliang Chen; Helen Cleugh; Purnamita Dasgupta; Fatima Denton; Jonathan F. Donges; Felix Kwabena Donkor; Hongbo Duan; Carlos M. Duarte; Kristie L. Ebi; Clea M. Edwards; Anja Engel; Eleanor Fisher; Sabine Fuss; Juliana Gaertner; Andrew Gettelman; Cécile A.J. Girardin; Nicholas R. Golledge; Jessica F. Green; Michael R. Grose; Masahiro Hashizume; Sophie Hebden; Helmke Hepach; Marina Hirota; Huang Hsiung Hsu; Satoshi Kojima; Sharachchandra Lele; Sylvia Lorek; Heike K. Lotze; H. Damon Matthews; Darren McCauley; Desta Mebratu; Nadine Mengis; Rachael H. Nolan; Erik Pihl; Stefan Rahmstorf; Aaron Redman; Colleen E. Reid; Johan Rockström; Joeri Rogelj; Marielle Saunois; Lizzie Sayer; Peter Schlosser; Giles B. Sioen; Joachim H. Spangenberg; Detlef Stammer; Thomas N.S. Sterner; Nicola Stevens; Kirsten Thonicke; Hanqin Tian; Ricarda Winkelmann; James Woodcock

doi:10.1017/sus.2021.25

Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan

Maria A. Martin, Olga Alcaraz Sendra, Ana Bastos, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Thorsten Blenckner, Kathryn Bowen, Paulo M. Brando, Tanya Brodie Rudolph, Milena Büchs, Mercedes Bustamante, Deliang Chen, Helen Cleugh, Purnamita Dasgupta, Fatima Denton, Jonathan F. Donges, Felix Kwabena Donkor, Hongbo Duan, Carlos M. Duarte, Kristie L. EbiClea M. Edwards, Anja Engel, Eleanor Fisher, Sabine Fuss, Juliana Gaertner, Andrew Gettelman, Cécile A.J. Girardin, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jessica F. Green, Michael R. Grose, Masahiro Hashizume, Sophie Hebden, Helmke Hepach, Marina Hirota, Huang Hsiung Hsu, Satoshi Kojima, Sharachchandra Lele, Sylvia Lorek, Heike K. Lotze, H. Damon Matthews, Darren McCauley, Desta Mebratu, Nadine Mengis, Rachael H. Nolan, Erik Pihl, Stefan Rahmstorf, Aaron Redman, Colleen E. Reid, Johan Rockström, Joeri Rogelj, Marielle Saunois, Lizzie Sayer, Peter Schlosser, Giles B. Sioen, Joachim H. Spangenberg, Detlef Stammer, Thomas N.S. Sterner, Nicola Stevens, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, Ricarda Winkelmann, James Woodcock

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Abstract

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.

Original language	English (US)
Journal	Global Sustainability
Volume	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25
State	Published - Oct 18 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1017/sus.2021.25

https://repository.kaust.edu.sa/bitstream/10754/673835/1/ten-new-insights-in-climate-science-2021-a-horizon-scan.pdf

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Martin, M. A., Sendra, O. A., Bastos, A., Bauer, N., Bertram, C., Blenckner, T., Bowen, K., Brando, P. M., Rudolph, T. B., Büchs, M., Bustamante, M., Chen, D., Cleugh, H., Dasgupta, P., Denton, F., Donges, J. F., Donkor, F. K., Duan, H., Duarte, C. M., ... Woodcock, J. (2021). Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan. Global Sustainability, 4. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25

@article{e6d03b323a024382becc9edb3a251aaf,

title = "Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan",

abstract = "Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.",

author = "Martin, {Maria A.} and Sendra, {Olga Alcaraz} and Ana Bastos and Nico Bauer and Christoph Bertram and Thorsten Blenckner and Kathryn Bowen and Brando, {Paulo M.} and Rudolph, {Tanya Brodie} and Milena B{\"u}chs and Mercedes Bustamante and Deliang Chen and Helen Cleugh and Purnamita Dasgupta and Fatima Denton and Donges, {Jonathan F.} and Donkor, {Felix Kwabena} and Hongbo Duan and Duarte, {Carlos M.} and Ebi, {Kristie L.} and Edwards, {Clea M.} and Anja Engel and Eleanor Fisher and Sabine Fuss and Juliana Gaertner and Andrew Gettelman and Girardin, {C{\'e}cile A.J.} and Golledge, {Nicholas R.} and Green, {Jessica F.} and Grose, {Michael R.} and Masahiro Hashizume and Sophie Hebden and Helmke Hepach and Marina Hirota and Hsu, {Huang Hsiung} and Satoshi Kojima and Sharachchandra Lele and Sylvia Lorek and Lotze, {Heike K.} and Matthews, {H. Damon} and Darren McCauley and Desta Mebratu and Nadine Mengis and Nolan, {Rachael H.} and Erik Pihl and Stefan Rahmstorf and Aaron Redman and Reid, {Colleen E.} and Johan Rockstr{\"o}m and Joeri Rogelj and Marielle Saunois and Lizzie Sayer and Peter Schlosser and Sioen, {Giles B.} and Spangenberg, {Joachim H.} and Detlef Stammer and Sterner, {Thomas N.S.} and Nicola Stevens and Kirsten Thonicke and Hanqin Tian and Ricarda Winkelmann and James Woodcock",

note = "KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2022-01-27 Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (R.W., grant number Wl4556/3-1); the ERC Consolidation Grant GLASST (J.W.); the European Research Council Advanced Grant project ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene) (J.F.D., grant number ERC-2016-ADG-743080); the European Space Agency (S.H.); the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (R.W., grant numbers 820575, 869304) (T.B., grant number 820989) (Joer.R., grant number 820829) (C.B., grant number 821471); FORMAS (T.B.); the German Federal Ministry (BMBF) as a Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA) (R.W); the H2020 FirEUrisk (K.T., grant number 101003890); the H2020 JUSTNORTH (D.M.); the H2020 PROBONO and NWO (D.M.); the KR Foundation, Denmark (L.S.); the Leibniz Association project DominoES (J.F.D.) (R.W.); the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (H.K.L., grant number NSERC RGPIN-2021-02395) (H.D.M., grant number RGPIN-2017-04159); the National Science Foundation of China (H.D., grant numbers 71874177, 72022019); the NERC_Formas-DBT project 'Nature4SDGs' (S.L., grant number BT/IN/TaSE/73/SL/2018-19); the New South Wales Department of Planning, via the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub (R.H.N.); the Oxford Martin School funding (C.G.); the PalMod project (R.W., grant number FKZ: 01LP1925D); the Royal Society Te Aparangi (N.R.G., grant number RDFVUW1501); the Serrapilheira Institute (M.H., grant number Serra-1707-18983); the Swedish national priority research areas BECC and MERGE (D.C.); the Trapnell Fund (University of Oxford) (N.S.); the UK Centre for Research on Energy Demand Solutions (M.B., grant number EP/ R035288/1)",

year = "2021",

month = oct,

day = "18",

doi = "10.1017/sus.2021.25",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "4",

journal = "Global Sustainability",

issn = "2059-4798",

publisher = "Cambridge University Press",

}

Martin, MA, Sendra, OA, Bastos, A, Bauer, N, Bertram, C, Blenckner, T, Bowen, K, Brando, PM, Rudolph, TB, Büchs, M, Bustamante, M, Chen, D, Cleugh, H, Dasgupta, P, Denton, F, Donges, JF, Donkor, FK, Duan, H, Duarte, CM, Ebi, KL, Edwards, CM, Engel, A, Fisher, E, Fuss, S, Gaertner, J, Gettelman, A, Girardin, CAJ, Golledge, NR, Green, JF, Grose, MR, Hashizume, M, Hebden, S, Hepach, H, Hirota, M, Hsu, HH, Kojima, S, Lele, S, Lorek, S, Lotze, HK, Matthews, HD, McCauley, D, Mebratu, D, Mengis, N, Nolan, RH, Pihl, E, Rahmstorf, S, Redman, A, Reid, CE, Rockström, J, Rogelj, J, Saunois, M, Sayer, L, Schlosser, P, Sioen, GB, Spangenberg, JH, Stammer, D, Sterner, TNS, Stevens, N, Thonicke, K, Tian, H, Winkelmann, R & Woodcock, J 2021, 'Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan', Global Sustainability, vol. 4. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan

AU - Martin, Maria A.

AU - Sendra, Olga Alcaraz

AU - Bastos, Ana

AU - Bauer, Nico

AU - Bertram, Christoph

AU - Blenckner, Thorsten

AU - Bowen, Kathryn

AU - Brando, Paulo M.

AU - Rudolph, Tanya Brodie

AU - Büchs, Milena

AU - Bustamante, Mercedes

AU - Chen, Deliang

AU - Cleugh, Helen

AU - Dasgupta, Purnamita

AU - Denton, Fatima

AU - Donges, Jonathan F.

AU - Donkor, Felix Kwabena

AU - Duan, Hongbo

AU - Duarte, Carlos M.

AU - Ebi, Kristie L.

AU - Edwards, Clea M.

AU - Engel, Anja

AU - Fisher, Eleanor

AU - Fuss, Sabine

AU - Gaertner, Juliana

AU - Gettelman, Andrew

AU - Girardin, Cécile A.J.

AU - Golledge, Nicholas R.

AU - Green, Jessica F.

AU - Grose, Michael R.

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Hebden, Sophie

AU - Hepach, Helmke

AU - Hirota, Marina

AU - Hsu, Huang Hsiung

AU - Kojima, Satoshi

AU - Lele, Sharachchandra

AU - Lorek, Sylvia

AU - Lotze, Heike K.

AU - Matthews, H. Damon

AU - McCauley, Darren

AU - Mebratu, Desta

AU - Mengis, Nadine

AU - Nolan, Rachael H.

AU - Pihl, Erik

AU - Rahmstorf, Stefan

AU - Redman, Aaron

AU - Reid, Colleen E.

AU - Rockström, Johan

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Saunois, Marielle

AU - Sayer, Lizzie

AU - Schlosser, Peter

AU - Sioen, Giles B.

AU - Spangenberg, Joachim H.

AU - Stammer, Detlef

AU - Sterner, Thomas N.S.

AU - Stevens, Nicola

AU - Thonicke, Kirsten

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Winkelmann, Ricarda

AU - Woodcock, James

N1 - KAUST Repository Item: Exported on 2022-01-27 Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (R.W., grant number Wl4556/3-1); the ERC Consolidation Grant GLASST (J.W.); the European Research Council Advanced Grant project ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene) (J.F.D., grant number ERC-2016-ADG-743080); the European Space Agency (S.H.); the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (R.W., grant numbers 820575, 869304) (T.B., grant number 820989) (Joer.R., grant number 820829) (C.B., grant number 821471); FORMAS (T.B.); the German Federal Ministry (BMBF) as a Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA) (R.W); the H2020 FirEUrisk (K.T., grant number 101003890); the H2020 JUSTNORTH (D.M.); the H2020 PROBONO and NWO (D.M.); the KR Foundation, Denmark (L.S.); the Leibniz Association project DominoES (J.F.D.) (R.W.); the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (H.K.L., grant number NSERC RGPIN-2021-02395) (H.D.M., grant number RGPIN-2017-04159); the National Science Foundation of China (H.D., grant numbers 71874177, 72022019); the NERC_Formas-DBT project 'Nature4SDGs' (S.L., grant number BT/IN/TaSE/73/SL/2018-19); the New South Wales Department of Planning, via the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub (R.H.N.); the Oxford Martin School funding (C.G.); the PalMod project (R.W., grant number FKZ: 01LP1925D); the Royal Society Te Aparangi (N.R.G., grant number RDFVUW1501); the Serrapilheira Institute (M.H., grant number Serra-1707-18983); the Swedish national priority research areas BECC and MERGE (D.C.); the Trapnell Fund (University of Oxford) (N.S.); the UK Centre for Research on Energy Demand Solutions (M.B., grant number EP/ R035288/1)

PY - 2021/10/18

Y1 - 2021/10/18

N2 - Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.

AB - Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10754/673835

UR - https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2059479821000259/type/journal_article

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85119702094&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/sus.2021.25

DO - 10.1017/sus.2021.25

M3 - Article

SN - 2059-4798

VL - 4

JO - Global Sustainability

JF - Global Sustainability

ER -

Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan

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